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Abstract:

In a pending pandemic, early knowledge of age-specific disease parameters, e.g., susceptibility, infectivity, and the clinical fraction of symptomatic cases, supports targeted public health responses like school closures or sequestration of the elderly. Using age-stratified COVID-19 case counts collected in six countries before April 23, 2020, we present a linear analysis of the exponential phase that attempts to estimate the age-specific disease parameters given above. Conclusions concerning the age-dependence of case susceptibility appeared more robust than corresponding conclusions about infectivity. The analysis produced some results consistent with conclusions confirmed much later in the COVID-19 pandemic.